exp_1110

FORMULA_NAME = "Sponsored 52-Week Repairs with Regime Arbitration (v1110)"
LOGIC_VARIANT_COUNT = 3
NOTES = """mode=explore; family=contrarian-52w-hybrid
New hybrid family that combines the champion contrarian-52w repair ladder with the recovery-quality arbitration idea, but changes the structure: instead of blending sleeves at fixed weights, each regime runs a sponsored-repair relay where price-repair candidates earn rank only when the kind of repair matches the regime and the sponsorship evidence is strong enough. Calm bulls reward shallower, trend-confirmed repairs; choppy bulls allow deeper rebounds only with liquidity/profitability sponsorship; risk-off flips the stack and lets durable sponsorship veto fragile repairs.
Deliberate metric coverage this run: actively use one momentum cluster (1m, 6m, 12m, and 12_1 in different roles), one recovery cluster (from_52w_high_pct plus from_200d_ma_pct), one volatility check, two liquidity checks, one income check, one valuation cluster (forward_pe plus peg), one growth cluster (revenue_growth_pct plus forward_eps), one quality cluster (operating_margin_pct plus free_cash_flow_margin_pct), and one size tilt. Deliberately weight return_3m_pct, avg_daily_volume_3m, dividend_ttm, pe, eps_growth_pct, operating_income_growth_pct, free_cash_flow_growth_pct, shares_outstanding, close, adj_close, high_52w, ma_200d, eps_ttm, revenue_ttm, operating_income_ttm, and free_cash_flow_ttm at zero this run so the backtest can isolate whether regime-specific sponsorship gating improves on the pure repair ladder."""

# Deliberate weight-0 metrics this run:
# - Momentum/return: return_3m_pct
# - Liquidity: avg_daily_volume_3m
# - Income: dividend_ttm
# - Valuation: pe
# - Growth: eps_growth_pct, operating_income_growth_pct, free_cash_flow_growth_pct
# - Size/raw levels: shares_outstanding, close, adj_close, high_52w, ma_200d,
#   eps_ttm, revenue_ttm, operating_income_ttm, free_cash_flow_ttm

CALM_BULL = {
    "from_52w_high_pct": (0.22, -1),
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.18, +1),
    "return_6m_pct": (0.12, +1),
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.08, +1),
    "return_1m_pct": (0.06, +1),
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.07, -1),
    "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m": (0.05, +1),
    "trading_days_3m": (0.04, +1),
    "forward_pe": (0.04, -1),
    "operating_margin_pct": (0.05, +1),
    "market_cap": (0.05, -1),
}

CHOPPY_BULL = {
    "from_52w_high_pct": (0.16, -1),
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.16, +1),
    "return_6m_pct": (0.08, +1),
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.07, +1),
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.09, -1),
    "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m": (0.07, +1),
    "trading_days_3m": (0.05, +1),
    "revenue_growth_pct": (0.05, +1),
    "forward_eps": (0.04, +1),
    "operating_margin_pct": (0.07, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_margin_pct": (0.08, +1),
    "peg": (0.04, -1),
}

RISK_OFF = {
    "from_52w_high_pct": (0.08, -1),
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.16, +1),
    "return_12m_pct": (0.06, +1),
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.04, +1),
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.13, -1),
    "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m": (0.07, +1),
    "trading_days_3m": (0.06, +1),
    "dividend_yield_ttm_pct": (0.07, +1),
    "forward_pe": (0.06, -1),
    "revenue_growth_pct": (0.04, +1),
    "forward_eps": (0.05, +1),
    "operating_margin_pct": (0.08, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_margin_pct": (0.10, +1),
}


def _branch(regime):
    if regime.get("bull"):
        breadth = regime.get("breadth", 0.0)
        vol = regime.get("avg_realized_vol_3m", 0.0)
        med_trend = regime.get("median_from_200d_ma_pct", 0.0)
        if breadth >= 0.64 and vol <= 27 and med_trend >= 2:
            return CALM_BULL, "calm_bull"
        return CHOPPY_BULL, "choppy_bull"
    return RISK_OFF, "risk_off"


def _clamp(value, low, high):
    if value < low:
        return low
    if value > high:
        return high
    return value


def score_universe(stocks, regime, ctx):
    book, branch = _branch(regime)
    zmaps = {metric: ctx.z(metric) for metric in book}
    scores = {}

    for row in stocks:
        sym = row["symbol"]

        base_total = 0.0
        base_weight = 0.0
        for metric, (weight, sign) in book.items():
            z = zmaps[metric].get(sym)
            if z is not None:
                base_total += weight * sign * z
                base_weight += weight
        total = base_total / base_weight if base_weight > 0 else 0.0

        drawdown = row.get("from_52w_high_pct")
        trend = row.get("from_200d_ma_pct")
        ret1 = row.get("return_1m_pct")
        ret6 = row.get("return_6m_pct")
        ret12 = row.get("return_12m_pct")
        mom = row.get("momentum_12_1_pct")
        vol = row.get("realized_vol_3m")
        dollar_vol = row.get("avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m")
        trading_days = row.get("trading_days_3m")
        div_yield = row.get("dividend_yield_ttm_pct")
        forward_pe = row.get("forward_pe")
        peg = row.get("peg")
        revenue_growth = row.get("revenue_growth_pct")
        forward_eps = row.get("forward_eps")
        op_margin = row.get("operating_margin_pct")
        fcf_margin = row.get("free_cash_flow_margin_pct")
        cap = row.get("market_cap")

        repair_score = 0.0
        repair_weight = 0.0

        if drawdown is not None:
            repair_weight += 1.3
            if branch == "calm_bull":
                if drawdown < -40:
                    repair_score -= 0.90
                elif drawdown < -28:
                    repair_score += 0.28
                elif drawdown < -16:
                    repair_score += 1.05
                elif drawdown < -7:
                    repair_score += 0.48
                elif drawdown < -3:
                    repair_score += 0.05
                else:
                    repair_score -= 0.32
            elif branch == "choppy_bull":
                if drawdown < -45:
                    repair_score -= 0.65
                elif drawdown < -30:
                    repair_score += 0.18
                elif drawdown < -18:
                    repair_score += 0.80
                elif drawdown < -8:
                    repair_score += 0.42
                else:
                    repair_score -= 0.18
            else:
                if drawdown < -34:
                    repair_score -= 0.62
                elif drawdown < -18:
                    repair_score -= 0.08
                elif drawdown < -6:
                    repair_score += 0.72
                else:
                    repair_score -= 0.20

        if trend is not None:
            repair_weight += 1.0
            if branch == "calm_bull":
                if trend > 12:
                    repair_score += 0.88
                elif trend > 4:
                    repair_score += 0.42
                elif trend < -3:
                    repair_score -= 0.95
            elif branch == "choppy_bull":
                if trend > 9:
                    repair_score += 0.62
                elif trend > 1:
                    repair_score += 0.28
                elif trend < -2:
                    repair_score -= 0.88
            else:
                if trend > 7:
                    repair_score += 0.60
                elif trend > 1:
                    repair_score += 0.22
                elif trend < 0:
                    repair_score -= 0.92

        if ret6 is not None:
            repair_weight += 0.9
            if ret6 > 18:
                repair_score += 0.46
            elif ret6 > 7:
                repair_score += 0.26
            elif ret6 < -8:
                repair_score -= 0.66
            elif ret6 < 0:
                repair_score -= 0.22

        if mom is not None:
            repair_weight += 0.8
            if branch == "risk_off":
                if mom >= 2 and mom <= 18:
                    repair_score += 0.34
                elif mom < -10:
                    repair_score -= 0.62
                elif mom > 22:
                    repair_score -= 0.08
            else:
                if mom >= 4 and mom <= 24:
                    repair_score += 0.46
                elif mom > 24:
                    repair_score += 0.12
                elif mom < -12:
                    repair_score -= 0.70
                elif mom < 0:
                    repair_score -= 0.18

        if ret1 is not None:
            repair_weight += 0.6
            if branch == "calm_bull":
                if ret1 > 2 and ret1 < 12:
                    repair_score += 0.26
                elif ret1 >= 16:
                    repair_score -= 0.20
                elif ret1 < -8:
                    repair_score -= 0.42
            elif branch == "choppy_bull":
                if ret1 > 4 and ret1 < 14:
                    repair_score += 0.18
                elif ret1 < -9:
                    repair_score -= 0.38
            else:
                if ret1 > 10:
                    repair_score -= 0.16
                elif ret1 < -8:
                    repair_score -= 0.26

        if vol is not None:
            repair_weight += 0.7
            if vol < 22:
                repair_score += 0.24
            elif vol > 44:
                repair_score -= 0.48
            elif vol > 34:
                repair_score -= 0.18

        if repair_weight > 0:
            repair_score = repair_score / repair_weight

        sponsor_score = 0.0
        sponsor_weight = 0.0

        if fcf_margin is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 1.0
            if fcf_margin > 12:
                sponsor_score += 1.00
            elif fcf_margin > 5:
                sponsor_score += 0.55
            elif fcf_margin < 0:
                sponsor_score -= 1.00
            elif fcf_margin < 3:
                sponsor_score -= 0.25

        if op_margin is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.9
            if op_margin > 18:
                sponsor_score += 0.82
            elif op_margin > 8:
                sponsor_score += 0.38
            elif op_margin < 0:
                sponsor_score -= 0.92
            elif op_margin < 4:
                sponsor_score -= 0.20

        if revenue_growth is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.7
            if revenue_growth > 16:
                sponsor_score += 0.62
            elif revenue_growth > 5:
                sponsor_score += 0.28
            elif revenue_growth < -10:
                sponsor_score -= 0.80
            elif revenue_growth < 0:
                sponsor_score -= 0.24

        if forward_eps is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.5
            if forward_eps > 0:
                sponsor_score += 0.25
            else:
                sponsor_score -= 0.75

        if forward_pe is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.6
            if forward_pe > 0 and forward_pe < 18:
                sponsor_score += 0.32
            elif forward_pe > 35:
                sponsor_score -= 0.40

        if peg is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.4
            if peg > 0 and peg < 1.6:
                sponsor_score += 0.24
            elif peg > 3.0:
                sponsor_score -= 0.28

        if dollar_vol is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.6
            if dollar_vol > 40000000:
                sponsor_score += 0.40
            elif dollar_vol > 12000000:
                sponsor_score += 0.18
            elif dollar_vol < 3000000:
                sponsor_score -= 0.45

        if trading_days is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.4
            if trading_days >= 62:
                sponsor_score += 0.18
            elif trading_days <= 57:
                sponsor_score -= 0.32

        if div_yield is not None:
            sponsor_weight += 0.4
            if div_yield >= 0.8 and div_yield <= 4.5:
                sponsor_score += 0.22
            elif div_yield > 5.5:
                sponsor_score -= 0.18
            elif div_yield == 0 and branch == "risk_off":
                sponsor_score -= 0.15

        if cap is not None and branch == "calm_bull":
            sponsor_weight += 0.3
            if cap < 2500000000:
                sponsor_score += 0.18
            elif cap > 150000000000:
                sponsor_score -= 0.10

        if sponsor_weight > 0:
            sponsor_score = sponsor_score / sponsor_weight

        if branch == "calm_bull":
            relay = 0.70 * repair_score + 0.30 * sponsor_score

            if repair_score > 0.30 and sponsor_score < -0.15:
                relay -= 0.30
            if repair_score > 0.55 and sponsor_score > 0.10:
                relay += 0.22
            if drawdown is not None and drawdown > -4:
                relay -= 0.22
            if trend is not None and trend > 20:
                relay -= 0.10
        elif branch == "choppy_bull":
            relay = 0.52 * repair_score + 0.48 * sponsor_score

            deep_repair = drawdown is not None and drawdown < -20
            if deep_repair and sponsor_score < 0.08:
                relay -= 0.48
            elif deep_repair and sponsor_score > 0.20:
                relay += 0.26

            if repair_score > 0.45 and sponsor_score > 0.18:
                relay += 0.18
            if repair_score < -0.10 and sponsor_score > 0.35:
                relay += 0.10
        else:
            relay = 0.30 * repair_score + 0.70 * sponsor_score

            if sponsor_score < 0.05 and repair_score > 0.25:
                relay -= 0.42
            if sponsor_score > 0.28 and repair_score >= 0.0:
                relay += 0.20
            if vol is not None and vol > 38:
                relay -= 0.16
            if trend is not None and trend < 0:
                relay -= 0.18

        total += _clamp(relay, -1.4, 1.4)
        scores[sym] = total

    return scores