exp_1128

FORMULA_NAME = "Recovery Quality Contrarian 52-Week Hybrid (State Arbitration Relay, v1128)"
LOGIC_VARIANT_COUNT = 4
NOTES = """mode=explore; family=recovery-quality-contrarian-52w-hybrid
New hybrid family that combines the parent recovery-quality relay with the strongest shallower-drawdown insight from the successful 52-week contrarian family, but changes the structure into a stock-state arbitration model rather than a static sleeve blend. Each stock is judged on three competing stories: repaired leader, deep contrarian rebound, or fragile value trap. Regime decides which story is allowed to lead, and explicit arbitration resolves conflicts: deep drawdowns must earn recovery confirmation or strong durability; repaired trends without any discount get capped; risk-off tapes only pass rebounds that also clear liquidity and quality checks.
Deliberate metric coverage this run: actively use momentum/return via 1m, 3m, 6m, and 12_1; trend/recovery via both distance metrics; volatility via realized_vol_3m; liquidity via all three liquidity metrics; income via both dividend_yield_ttm_pct and dividend_ttm; valuation via forward_pe and peg; growth via operating_income_growth_pct, free_cash_flow_growth_pct, and forward_eps; quality via operating_margin_pct and free_cash_flow_margin_pct; size via a mild market_cap tilt. Deliberate weight-0 metrics this run: pe, return_12m_pct, eps_growth_pct, revenue_growth_pct, shares_outstanding, close, adj_close, high_52w, ma_200d, eps_ttm, revenue_ttm, operating_income_ttm, free_cash_flow_ttm. Correlated metrics are intentionally thinned, and sparse fundamentals are normalized by present weight so missing fields do not auto-zero a stock."""

RECOVERY_SLEEVE = {
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.28, +1),
    "return_6m_pct": (0.22, +1),
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.18, +1),
    "return_3m_pct": (0.17, +1),
    "return_1m_pct": (0.08, -1),
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.07, -1),
}

CONTRARIAN_SLEEVE = {
    "from_52w_high_pct": (0.38, -1),
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.18, +1),
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.14, +1),
    "return_1m_pct": (0.10, -1),
    "return_3m_pct": (0.10, +1),
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.10, -1),
}

DURABILITY_SLEEVE = {
    "operating_margin_pct": (0.12, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_margin_pct": (0.12, +1),
    "operating_income_growth_pct": (0.10, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_growth_pct": (0.10, +1),
    "forward_eps": (0.08, +1),
    "forward_pe": (0.08, -1),
    "peg": (0.08, -1),
    "dividend_yield_ttm_pct": (0.07, +1),
    "dividend_ttm": (0.04, +1),
    "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m": (0.06, +1),
    "avg_daily_volume_3m": (0.03, +1),
    "trading_days_3m": (0.04, +1),
    "market_cap": (0.08, -1),
}

def score_universe(stocks, regime, ctx):
    metric_cache = {}

    def zmap(metric):
        if metric not in metric_cache:
            metric_cache[metric] = ctx.z(metric)
        return metric_cache[metric]

    def zscore(symbol, metric):
        val = zmap(metric).get(symbol)
        if val is None:
            return None
        if val > 4.0:
            return 4.0
        if val < -4.0:
            return -4.0
        return val

    def blend(symbol, spec):
        total = 0.0
        used = 0.0
        for metric, (weight, direction) in spec.items():
            z = zscore(symbol, metric)
            if z is None:
                continue
            total += weight * direction * z
            used += weight
        if used <= 0.0:
            return None
        return total / used

    def raw(stock, metric):
        return stock.get(metric)

    bull = bool(regime.get("bull"))
    breadth = regime.get("breadth") or 0.0
    tape_repair = regime.get("median_from_200d_ma_pct") or 0.0
    tape_momentum = regime.get("median_momentum_12_1_pct") or 0.0
    tape_vol = regime.get("avg_realized_vol_3m") or 0.0

    scores = {}
    for stock in stocks:
        symbol = stock["symbol"]

        recovery = blend(symbol, RECOVERY_SLEEVE)
        contrarian = blend(symbol, CONTRARIAN_SLEEVE)
        durability = blend(symbol, DURABILITY_SLEEVE)

        if recovery is None and contrarian is None and durability is None:
            scores[symbol] = -999.0
            continue

        recovery = recovery if recovery is not None else 0.0
        contrarian = contrarian if contrarian is not None else 0.0
        durability = durability if durability is not None else 0.0

        from_52w = raw(stock, "from_52w_high_pct")
        from_200d = raw(stock, "from_200d_ma_pct")
        ret_1m = raw(stock, "return_1m_pct")
        ret_3m = raw(stock, "return_3m_pct")
        mom_12_1 = raw(stock, "momentum_12_1_pct")
        realized_vol = raw(stock, "realized_vol_3m")
        trading_days = raw(stock, "trading_days_3m")

        deep_pullback = from_52w is not None and from_52w <= -22.0
        shallow_pullback = from_52w is not None and -18.0 <= from_52w <= -6.0
        minimal_discount = from_52w is not None and from_52w > -4.0
        repair_ok = (
            (from_200d is None or from_200d > -7.0) and
            (mom_12_1 is None or mom_12_1 > -12.0) and
            (ret_3m is None or ret_3m > -6.0)
        )
        knife_risk = (
            (from_200d is not None and from_200d < -16.0) and
            (ret_3m is not None and ret_3m < -12.0) and
            (realized_vol is not None and realized_vol > 42.0)
        )
        liquid_enough = (
            (trading_days is None or trading_days >= 55) and
            (zscore(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") is None or zscore(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") > -0.6)
        )

        if bull and breadth >= 0.66 and tape_repair >= 0.0 and tape_momentum >= 4.0:
            branch_score = 0.46 * recovery + 0.24 * contrarian + 0.30 * durability
            if shallow_pullback and repair_ok:
                branch_score += 0.34
            if deep_pullback and repair_ok and durability > -0.1:
                branch_score += 0.18
            branch_id = 1
        elif bull and breadth >= 0.50:
            branch_score = 0.34 * recovery + 0.36 * contrarian + 0.30 * durability
            if shallow_pullback and repair_ok:
                branch_score += 0.42
            if deep_pullback and durability > 0.2:
                branch_score += 0.16
            branch_id = 2
        elif tape_vol >= 29.0 or tape_repair <= -3.0 or breadth < 0.42:
            branch_score = 0.26 * recovery + 0.22 * contrarian + 0.52 * durability
            if deep_pullback and repair_ok and liquid_enough and durability > 0.0:
                branch_score += 0.28
            if shallow_pullback and durability > 0.1:
                branch_score += 0.16
            branch_id = 3
        else:
            branch_score = 0.38 * recovery + 0.30 * contrarian + 0.32 * durability
            if deep_pullback and repair_ok:
                branch_score += 0.25
            if shallow_pullback and repair_ok:
                branch_score += 0.20
            branch_id = 4

        arbitration = 0.0

        if deep_pullback:
            if repair_ok and durability > 0.0:
                arbitration += 0.32
            elif durability > 0.35 and liquid_enough:
                arbitration += 0.10
            else:
                arbitration -= 0.60

        if minimal_discount and recovery > 0.8:
            arbitration -= 0.28

        if knife_risk:
            arbitration -= 0.75

        if not liquid_enough:
            arbitration -= 0.25

        if branch_id == 3 and realized_vol is not None and realized_vol > 48.0:
            arbitration -= 0.18

        if ret_1m is not None and ret_1m < -18.0 and deep_pullback and repair_ok:
            arbitration += 0.14

        if recovery > contrarian + 0.8 and minimal_discount:
            arbitration -= 0.12

        if contrarian > recovery + 0.8 and not repair_ok and durability < 0.15:
            arbitration -= 0.22

        if durability > 0.55 and repair_ok:
            arbitration += 0.12

        scores[symbol] = branch_score + arbitration

    return scores