exp_1151

FORMULA_NAME = "Explore Regime Momentum Recovery Quality Contrarian 52-Week Hybrid (Relay Arbitration, v1151)"
LOGIC_VARIANT_COUNT = 4
NOTES = """mode=explore; family=regime-momentum-recovery-quality-contrarian-52w-hybrid
New hybrid family that combines four orthogonal sleeves into a regime relay instead of a static blend: repaired momentum leadership in strong tapes, shakeout-and-repair continuation in softer bulls, quality-backed turnaround arbitration in transition tapes, and defensive contrarian triage in risk-off tapes. The arbitration rule is explicit: deep 52-week drawdowns only rank well when repair and durability confirm them; repaired leaders outrank deep pullbacks in healthy regimes; when momentum and contrarian depth disagree, the branch plus the stock-state gates decide whether the name is a leader, a turnaround, or a falling knife.
Deliberate metric coverage this run: active momentum uses 1m/3m/6m plus 12_1 selectively; trend/recovery uses both 200d distance and 52-week-high distance; volatility is active through realized vol; liquidity uses all three continuity/liquidity metrics; income uses both dividend yield and dividend cash; valuation uses forward_pe and peg while pe is deliberately zeroed; growth rotates to operating-income growth, free-cash-flow growth, and forward_eps while eps/revenue growth are zeroed; quality uses both operating and free-cash-flow margins; size/raw-level fields are deliberately zeroed this run to avoid raw-price or raw-size ranking. Deliberate weight-0 metrics: return_12m_pct, pe, eps_growth_pct, revenue_growth_pct, market_cap, shares_outstanding, close, adj_close, high_52w, ma_200d, eps_ttm, revenue_ttm, operating_income_ttm, free_cash_flow_ttm."""

TREND_CLUSTER = {
    "momentum_12_1_pct": (0.58, +1),
    "return_6m_pct": (0.42, +1),
}

REPAIR_CLUSTER = {
    "from_200d_ma_pct": (0.58, +1),
    "return_3m_pct": (0.42, +1),
}

DRAWDOWN_CLUSTER = {
    "from_52w_high_pct": (1.00, -1),
}

SHAKEOUT_CLUSTER = {
    "return_1m_pct": (1.00, -1),
}

STABILITY_CLUSTER = {
    "realized_vol_3m": (0.44, -1),
    "trading_days_3m": (0.24, +1),
    "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m": (0.20, +1),
    "avg_daily_volume_3m": (0.12, +1),
}

INCOME_CLUSTER = {
    "dividend_yield_ttm_pct": (0.66, +1),
    "dividend_ttm": (0.34, +1),
}

VALUATION_CLUSTER = {
    "peg": (0.62, -1),
    "forward_pe": (0.38, -1),
}

GROWTH_CLUSTER = {
    "operating_income_growth_pct": (0.38, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_growth_pct": (0.32, +1),
    "forward_eps": (0.30, +1),
}

QUALITY_CLUSTER = {
    "operating_margin_pct": (0.54, +1),
    "free_cash_flow_margin_pct": (0.46, +1),
}


def score_universe(stocks, regime, ctx):
    z_cache = {}

    def z(metric, symbol):
        series = z_cache.get(metric)
        if series is None:
            series = ctx.z(metric)
            z_cache[metric] = series
        if not series:
            return None
        return series.get(symbol)

    def blend(symbol, spec):
        total = 0.0
        weight_sum = 0.0
        for metric, (weight, sign) in spec.items():
            value = z(metric, symbol)
            if value is None:
                continue
            total += weight * sign * value
            weight_sum += weight
        if weight_sum == 0.0:
            return 0.0
        return total / weight_sum

    bull = bool(regime.get("bull"))
    breadth = regime.get("breadth")
    avg_vol = regime.get("avg_realized_vol_3m")
    median_trend = regime.get("median_from_200d_ma_pct")
    median_momo = regime.get("median_momentum_12_1_pct")

    if breadth is None:
        breadth = 0.5
    if avg_vol is None:
        avg_vol = 0.0
    if median_trend is None:
        median_trend = 0.0
    if median_momo is None:
        median_momo = 0.0

    if bull and breadth >= 0.63 and median_trend >= 1.5:
        branch = "bull_lead"
    elif bull and breadth >= 0.48 and median_momo >= -2.0:
        branch = "bull_repair"
    elif breadth <= 0.42 or avg_vol >= 32.0 or median_trend <= -4.0:
        branch = "defense"
    else:
        branch = "transition"

    scores = {}
    for stock in stocks:
        symbol = stock["symbol"]

        trend = blend(symbol, TREND_CLUSTER)
        repair = blend(symbol, REPAIR_CLUSTER)
        drawdown = blend(symbol, DRAWDOWN_CLUSTER)
        shakeout = blend(symbol, SHAKEOUT_CLUSTER)
        stability = blend(symbol, STABILITY_CLUSTER)
        income = blend(symbol, INCOME_CLUSTER)
        valuation = blend(symbol, VALUATION_CLUSTER)
        growth = blend(symbol, GROWTH_CLUSTER)
        quality = blend(symbol, QUALITY_CLUSTER)

        repaired_leader = trend > 0.15 and repair > 0.05
        durable_turn = drawdown > 0.55 and repair > -0.05 and quality > -0.10 and stability > -0.05
        falling_knife = drawdown > 0.85 and repair < -0.20 and quality < -0.10

        score = 0.0

        if branch == "bull_lead":
            score = (
                0.31 * trend
                + 0.23 * repair
                + 0.14 * quality
                + 0.12 * growth
                + 0.08 * valuation
                + 0.06 * stability
                + 0.03 * drawdown
                + 0.03 * shakeout
            )
            if repaired_leader:
                score += 0.18
            if drawdown > 1.10 and repair < 0.05:
                score -= 0.14
            if falling_knife:
                score -= 0.16

        elif branch == "bull_repair":
            score = (
                0.21 * drawdown
                + 0.22 * repair
                + 0.16 * trend
                + 0.11 * shakeout
                + 0.11 * quality
                + 0.08 * growth
                + 0.06 * valuation
                + 0.05 * stability
            )
            if durable_turn:
                score += 0.16
            if repaired_leader:
                score += 0.08
            if drawdown > 1.25 and repair < -0.10:
                score -= 0.18

        elif branch == "transition":
            score = (
                0.20 * repair
                + 0.17 * quality
                + 0.14 * stability
                + 0.14 * valuation
                + 0.13 * drawdown
                + 0.10 * trend
                + 0.07 * growth
                + 0.05 * shakeout
            )
            if durable_turn:
                score += 0.18
            elif repaired_leader:
                score += 0.10
            if falling_knife:
                score -= 0.22
            if drawdown > 0.55 and trend < -0.10 and quality < 0.0:
                score -= 0.10

        else:
            score = (
                0.24 * stability
                + 0.19 * quality
                + 0.15 * valuation
                + 0.12 * repair
                + 0.10 * income
                + 0.09 * drawdown
                + 0.06 * growth
                + 0.05 * trend
            )
            if durable_turn:
                score += 0.15
            if repaired_leader and stability > 0.0:
                score += 0.06
            if drawdown > 0.75 and (repair < 0.0 or stability < -0.05):
                score -= 0.20
            if falling_knife:
                score -= 0.24

        scores[symbol] = score

    return scores