exp_1177

FORMULA_NAME = "Contrarian 52W Regime Momentum Recovery Quality Hybrid (Conflict Relay, v1177)"
LOGIC_VARIANT_COUNT = 4
NOTES = """mode=explore; family=contrarian-52w-regime-momentum-recovery-quality-hybrid
New hybrid family built as a conflict relay rather than a blended average: every stock earns four sleeve scores (leader, repair, franchise, stabilizer), but the active regime branch only lets one sleeve dominate after evidence gates resolve direct conflicts between momentum leadership and 52-week-high contrarian repair. Deep-drawdown names are disqualified unless short-term repair and trend have already turned, leaders are demoted when they are too extended or fundamentally hollow, and defensive quality-income franchises pre-empt both whenever breadth and tape quality weaken. This preserves the champion family's off-high recovery edge, adds the state-relay discipline of the best regime/momentum hybrids, and introduces explicit value-income ballast only when the tape actually asks for it.
Deliberate metric coverage this run: momentum uses 1m, 3m, 6m, and 12_1 while 12m is deliberately zeroed; trend/recovery uses both 200d distance and 52-week-high distance; volatility uses realized_vol_3m; liquidity uses avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m and trading_days_3m while share volume is deliberately zeroed; income rotates to both dividend_yield_ttm_pct and dividend_ttm; valuation rotates to pe and forward_pe while peg is deliberately zeroed; growth uses revenue_growth_pct, operating_income_growth_pct, and forward_eps while eps_growth_pct and free_cash_flow_growth_pct are deliberately zeroed; quality uses operating_margin_pct and free_cash_flow_margin_pct; size uses market_cap only as a branch-specific tilt. Deliberate weight-0 metrics: return_12m_pct, avg_daily_volume_3m, peg, eps_growth_pct, free_cash_flow_growth_pct, shares_outstanding, close, adj_close, high_52w, ma_200d, eps_ttm, revenue_ttm, operating_income_ttm, free_cash_flow_ttm."""

def score_universe(stocks, regime, ctx):
    metrics = [
        "return_1m_pct",
        "return_3m_pct",
        "return_6m_pct",
        "momentum_12_1_pct",
        "from_200d_ma_pct",
        "from_52w_high_pct",
        "realized_vol_3m",
        "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m",
        "trading_days_3m",
        "dividend_yield_ttm_pct",
        "dividend_ttm",
        "pe",
        "forward_pe",
        "revenue_growth_pct",
        "operating_income_growth_pct",
        "forward_eps",
        "operating_margin_pct",
        "free_cash_flow_margin_pct",
    ]
    z = {}
    for metric in metrics:
        z[metric] = ctx.z(metric)

    by_symbol = {}
    for stock in stocks:
        symbol = stock.get("symbol")
        if symbol is not None:
            by_symbol[symbol] = stock

    def raw(symbol, field):
        stock = by_symbol.get(symbol)
        if stock is None:
            return None
        return stock.get(field)

    def zval(symbol, field):
        return z[field].get(symbol)

    def weighted_average(parts):
        total = 0.0
        weight_sum = 0.0
        for value, weight in parts:
            if value is None:
                continue
            total += value * weight
            weight_sum += weight
        if weight_sum <= 0.0:
            return 0.0
        return total / weight_sum

    def drawdown_preference(symbol, sweet_low, sweet_high):
        dd = raw(symbol, "from_52w_high_pct")
        if dd is None:
            return None
        if dd > sweet_high:
            return -0.4 - (dd - sweet_high) / 12.0
        if dd < sweet_low:
            return -0.3 - (sweet_low - dd) / 18.0
        mid = (sweet_low + sweet_high) / 2.0
        half = (sweet_high - sweet_low) / 2.0
        if half <= 0:
            return 0.0
        return 1.15 - abs(dd - mid) / half

    def cap_tilt(symbol):
        cap = raw(symbol, "market_cap")
        if cap is None:
            return 0.0, 0.0
        if cap < 4e9:
            return 0.55, -0.45
        if cap < 12e9:
            return 0.25, -0.20
        if cap > 80e9:
            return -0.30, 0.50
        if cap > 25e9:
            return -0.10, 0.20
        return 0.0, 0.0

    def liquidity_penalty(symbol):
        adv = zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m")
        days = zval(symbol, "trading_days_3m")
        penalty = 0.0
        if adv is not None and adv < -0.85:
            penalty -= 0.45
        if days is not None and days < -0.75:
            penalty -= 0.35
        return penalty

    breadth = regime.get("breadth", 0.0) or 0.0
    tape_momo = regime.get("median_momentum_12_1_pct", 0.0) or 0.0
    tape_trend = regime.get("median_from_200d_ma_pct", 0.0) or 0.0
    tape_vol = regime.get("avg_realized_vol_3m", 0.0) or 0.0
    bull = bool(regime.get("bull"))

    if bull and breadth >= 0.62 and tape_momo >= 5.0 and tape_trend >= 3.0 and tape_vol <= 34.0:
        branch = "expansion"
    elif bull and breadth >= 0.45 and tape_trend >= -1.0 and tape_vol <= 39.0:
        branch = "rotation"
    elif (not bull) and breadth >= 0.40 and tape_trend >= -7.0 and tape_vol <= 43.0:
        branch = "repair"
    else:
        branch = "defense"

    scores = {}
    for symbol in by_symbol:
        small_cap_tilt, large_cap_tilt = cap_tilt(symbol)
        dd_repair = drawdown_preference(symbol, -38.0, -12.0)
        dd_shallow = drawdown_preference(symbol, -24.0, -6.0)

        leader = weighted_average([
            (zval(symbol, "momentum_12_1_pct"), 1.35),
            (zval(symbol, "return_6m_pct"), 1.10),
            (zval(symbol, "return_3m_pct"), 0.70),
            (zval(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct"), 0.75),
            (zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m"), 0.35),
            (-zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None else None, 0.40),
            (zval(symbol, "forward_eps"), 0.30),
            (zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct"), 0.25),
        ])
        if dd_shallow is not None:
            leader += 0.20 * dd_shallow
        if raw(symbol, "from_52w_high_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_52w_high_pct") > -2.0:
            leader -= 0.25
        leader += liquidity_penalty(symbol)

        repair = weighted_average([
            (dd_repair, 1.45),
            (zval(symbol, "return_1m_pct"), 0.95),
            (zval(symbol, "return_3m_pct"), 0.70),
            (zval(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct"), 0.80),
            (zval(symbol, "momentum_12_1_pct"), 0.50),
            (-zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None else None, 0.45),
            (zval(symbol, "revenue_growth_pct"), 0.35),
            (zval(symbol, "operating_income_growth_pct"), 0.45),
            (zval(symbol, "operating_margin_pct"), 0.30),
            (zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m"), 0.30),
        ])
        repair += 0.18 * small_cap_tilt
        repair += liquidity_penalty(symbol)

        franchise = weighted_average([
            (zval(symbol, "operating_margin_pct"), 1.00),
            (zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct"), 1.00),
            (-zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None else None, 0.95),
            (zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct"), 0.55),
            (-zval(symbol, "forward_pe") if zval(symbol, "forward_pe") is not None else None, 0.45),
            (-zval(symbol, "pe") if zval(symbol, "pe") is not None else None, 0.35),
            (zval(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct"), 0.40),
            (zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m"), 0.35),
            (zval(symbol, "trading_days_3m"), 0.25),
            (zval(symbol, "forward_eps"), 0.30),
        ])
        franchise += 0.22 * large_cap_tilt
        franchise += liquidity_penalty(symbol)

        stabilizer = weighted_average([
            (zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct"), 0.90),
            (zval(symbol, "dividend_ttm"), 0.55),
            (-zval(symbol, "pe") if zval(symbol, "pe") is not None else None, 0.55),
            (-zval(symbol, "forward_pe") if zval(symbol, "forward_pe") is not None else None, 0.45),
            (-zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None else None, 0.70),
            (zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct"), 0.55),
            (zval(symbol, "operating_margin_pct"), 0.45),
            (zval(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct"), 0.35),
            (zval(symbol, "trading_days_3m"), 0.25),
            (zval(symbol, "revenue_growth_pct"), 0.30),
        ])
        stabilizer += 0.18 * large_cap_tilt
        stabilizer += liquidity_penalty(symbol)

        leader_gate = 0
        repair_gate = 0
        franchise_gate = 0
        stabilizer_gate = 0

        if zval(symbol, "momentum_12_1_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "momentum_12_1_pct") > 0.05:
            leader_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "return_6m_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "return_6m_pct") > 0.00:
            leader_gate += 1
        if raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") > 0.0:
            leader_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") < 0.65:
            leader_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") > -0.60:
            leader_gate += 1

        dd_raw = raw(symbol, "from_52w_high_pct")
        if dd_raw is not None and dd_raw <= -10.0 and dd_raw >= -45.0:
            repair_gate += 1
        if raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") > 0.0:
            repair_gate += 1
        if raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") > -4.0:
            repair_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "operating_income_growth_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "operating_income_growth_pct") > -0.25:
            repair_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "avg_daily_dollar_volume_3m") > -0.75:
            repair_gate += 1

        if zval(symbol, "operating_margin_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "operating_margin_pct") > 0.0:
            franchise_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct") > 0.0:
            franchise_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") < 0.0:
            franchise_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct") > -0.35:
            franchise_gate += 1
        if (
            (zval(symbol, "pe") is not None and zval(symbol, "pe") < 0.55) or
            (zval(symbol, "forward_pe") is not None and zval(symbol, "forward_pe") < 0.55)
        ):
            franchise_gate += 1

        if zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "dividend_yield_ttm_pct") > -0.25:
            stabilizer_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "dividend_ttm") is not None and zval(symbol, "dividend_ttm") > -0.25:
            stabilizer_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") < 0.15:
            stabilizer_gate += 1
        if zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct") is not None and zval(symbol, "free_cash_flow_margin_pct") > -0.10:
            stabilizer_gate += 1
        if raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") > -8.0:
            stabilizer_gate += 1

        conflict_penalty = 0.0
        if leader > franchise + 0.25 and repair_gate < 3 and dd_raw is not None and dd_raw < -35.0:
            conflict_penalty -= 0.35
        if repair > leader + 0.20 and (raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") is None or raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") <= 0.0):
            conflict_penalty -= 0.40
        if leader_gate < 3:
            leader -= 0.30
        if repair_gate < 3:
            repair -= 0.30
        if franchise_gate < 3:
            franchise -= 0.18
        if stabilizer_gate < 3:
            stabilizer -= 0.12

        if branch == "expansion":
            if leader_gate >= 3 and leader >= repair - 0.10:
                dominant = leader
            elif repair_gate >= 4:
                dominant = repair
            elif franchise_gate >= 3:
                dominant = franchise
            else:
                dominant = max(leader, repair, franchise)
            score = dominant * 0.72 + franchise * 0.14 + repair * 0.14
            if leader_gate >= 4 and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") > 4.0:
                score += 0.10
            if dd_raw is not None and dd_raw < -42.0:
                score -= 0.18
        elif branch == "rotation":
            if repair_gate >= 4 and repair > leader + 0.05:
                dominant = repair
            elif franchise_gate >= 3 and franchise > leader:
                dominant = franchise
            elif leader_gate >= 3:
                dominant = leader
            else:
                dominant = max(repair, franchise, leader)
            score = dominant * 0.64 + franchise * 0.20 + stabilizer * 0.16
            if dd_raw is not None and dd_raw <= -12.0 and dd_raw >= -30.0 and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") > 0.0:
                score += 0.12
        elif branch == "repair":
            if repair_gate >= 3 and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") > 0.0:
                dominant = repair
            elif franchise_gate >= 3:
                dominant = franchise
            elif stabilizer_gate >= 3:
                dominant = stabilizer
            else:
                dominant = max(repair, franchise, stabilizer)
            score = dominant * 0.68 + franchise * 0.20 + leader * 0.12
            if raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "from_200d_ma_pct") > -1.0:
                score += 0.08
        else:
            if franchise_gate >= 3:
                dominant = franchise
            elif stabilizer_gate >= 3:
                dominant = stabilizer
            elif repair_gate >= 4 and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") is not None and raw(symbol, "return_1m_pct") > 0.0:
                dominant = repair
            else:
                dominant = max(franchise, stabilizer, repair)
            score = dominant * 0.74 + stabilizer * 0.16 + repair * 0.10
            if zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") is not None and zval(symbol, "realized_vol_3m") > 1.0:
                score -= 0.20

        scores[symbol] = score + conflict_penalty

    return scores